Climate Induced on the Hydrology of mediterranean Basins: Reducing Uncertainty and Quantifying Risk through an Integrated Monitoring and Modeling System
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2010-01-01
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Abstract
La strategia di CLIMB è volta ad utilizzare ed integrare tecniche avanzate di monitoraggio sul campo, telerilevamento a distanza, confronto incrociato e verifica di modelli climatici, modellistica idrologica integrata e valutazione dei fattori socio-economici in un nuovo quadro concettuale per ridurre significativamente le incertezze esistenti nell'analisi dell'impatto dei cambiamenti climatici. Verrà realizzato uno strumento integrato di valutazione del rischio per la gestione adattiva delle risorse idriche e per le migliori pratiche agricole in condizioni di cambiamento climatico. Lo strumento per l'analisi di rischio e vulnerabilità consentirà, inoltre, la valutazione dei rischi di conflitto. I nuovi modelli e strumenti di valutazione ed i loro risultati saranno comparati con le attuali metodologie. I miglioramenti saranno comunicati a tutti i soggetti interessati e ai responsabili delle decisioni in modo trasparente e di facile comprensione, permettendo loro di utilizzare le nuove scoperte in materia di risorse idriche regionali e iniziative di gestione agricola, nonché di pianificare azioni per ridurre il potenziale di conflitto. CLIMB, insieme a WASSERMed e CLICO, è integrato in un gruppo di progetti della UE incentrati sui cambiamenti indotti dal clima sulle risorse idriche quale minaccia alla sicurezza. Il ruolo del CRS4 nel progetto riguarda l'auditing e la regionalizzazione dei modelli climatici e la modellistica idrologica integrata.
The strategy of CLIMB is aiming to employ and integrate advanced field monitoring techniques, remote sensing analyses and retrievals, climate models auditing and integrated hydrologic modeling and socioeconomic factor assessment in a new conceptual framework to significantly reduce existing uncertainties in climate change impact analysis. It will create an integrated risk assessment tool for adaptive water resources management and best agricultural practice under climate change conditions. The risk and vulnerability analysis tool will also enable the assessment of risks for conflict-inducing actions. The improved models, new assessment tools, and their results will be evaluated against current methodologies. Improvements will be communicated to stakeholders and decision makers in a transparent, easy-to-understand form, enabling them to utilize the new findings in regional water resource and agricultural management initiatives as well as in the design of mechanisms to reduce potential for conflict CLIMB is embedded in a cluster of independent EU- projects with WASSERMed and CLICO, focused on climate induced changes in water resources as a threat to security. The role of CRS4 in the project deals with climate models auditing and downscaling and integrated hydrological modeling
The strategy of CLIMB is aiming to employ and integrate advanced field monitoring techniques, remote sensing analyses and retrievals, climate models auditing and integrated hydrologic modeling and socioeconomic factor assessment in a new conceptual framework to significantly reduce existing uncertainties in climate change impact analysis. It will create an integrated risk assessment tool for adaptive water resources management and best agricultural practice under climate change conditions. The risk and vulnerability analysis tool will also enable the assessment of risks for conflict-inducing actions. The improved models, new assessment tools, and their results will be evaluated against current methodologies. Improvements will be communicated to stakeholders and decision makers in a transparent, easy-to-understand form, enabling them to utilize the new findings in regional water resource and agricultural management initiatives as well as in the design of mechanisms to reduce potential for conflict CLIMB is embedded in a cluster of independent EU- projects with WASSERMed and CLICO, focused on climate induced changes in water resources as a threat to security. The role of CRS4 in the project deals with climate models auditing and downscaling and integrated hydrological modeling
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Keywords
groundwater resources management , climate models downscaling , integrated hydrological modeling , uncertainty assessment , socioeconomic analysis